So in conclusion, while we can be fairly optimistic about the US economy in the short run because of the likely boom in business investments and in the long run because of its still comparatively market-oriented economic structure, the imbalances created by the Fed's cheap money policies make a sharp recession likely in the medium-term outlook. However, if this likely sharp recession will induce an extremely destructive response in the form of protectionism, higher taxes and spending, or high inflation it could make the long-term outlook more pessimistic. (#)So, what's it gonna be?
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Words of warning (from 2005)
Thursday, January 01, 2009
Written in 2004 (by an Austrian, of course)
"[Asian central banks] increasing purchases of U.S. assets make them increasingly vulnerable to heavy losses if the dollar falls, but the increasing U.S. current account deficit forces them to increase their purchases to prevent their currencies from rising. The longer this unsustainable process is allowed to continue the heavier losses that will be inflicted on both sides."
- America's Unsustainable Boom
More here. I love Austrian economics. I wish more journalists and pundits would do the same.
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